Cermati Invest Weekly Update 3 Juli 2023
| INDONESIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| JKSE | 0.33% | 6,661.88 |
| JKLQ45 | 0.32% | 945.70 |
| JKIDX30 | 0.29% | 491.27 |
| EIDO | 0.57% | 23.05 |
| FTSE Indonesia | 0.39% | 3,647.15 |
| USD/IDR | 0.34% | 15,040 |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Juni 2023
Market Review
IHSG tertekan selama semester I 2023, di tengah ketidakpastian global, termasuk kebijakan uang ketat ala bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) The Fed. Mengawali paruh kedua tahun ini, pasar keuangan domestik menunggu katalis positif, termasuk masuknya dana asing, seiring rilisnya sejumlah data makro dan rilis laporan keuangan kuartal II 2023.
| COMMODITY | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| XAU/USD | -0.09% | 1,919.62 |
| Crude Oil WTI | 1.87% | 70.45 |
| Palm Oil c3 F | 4.67% | 3,789 |
| Natural Gas | 1.65% | 2.77 |
| Newcastle Coal | 9.96% | 138.00 |
| Nickel | -4.12% | 20,434 |
| Tin | -1.43% | 26,098 |
| Copper | -0.88% | 8,317 |
| Aluminium | -0.87% | 2,156 |
| US Soybeans | -3.61% | 1,440.50 |
Provided by AIT, last update 30 Juni 2023
Economic Data
Sepanjang semester I-2023, kinerja Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terpantau kurang memuaskan, di mana IHSG minus 2,76%. IHSG berada di dalam tren sideways. Pergerakannya terbatas di kisaran 6.500-6950.
Di paruh kedua 2023, secara makro, fundamental perekonomian Indonesia yang cukup baik berpotensi menjadi daya tarik pelaku pasar domestik maupun asing. Selain itu, inflasi yang lebih terjaga, dan perekonomian yang tetap dapat bertumbuh menjadi katalis positif untuk IHSG ke depan. Namun, ketidakpastian The Fed yang masih akan berlanjut dan risiko resesi AS masih akan membayangi pasar saham global, tak terkecuali RI.
Pada pekan ini, investor masih akan cenderung wait and see usai libur panjang, sembari mencermati sejumlah rilis ekonomi makro, baik dari dalam maupun luar negeri. Pada Senin (2/7), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) akan merilis data inflasi Indonesia per Juni. Laju inflasi tahunan diproyeksikan akan turun ke bawah 4%, tepatnya di kisaran 3,6%, dari posisi Mei 4%.
| REGIONAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | W (-/+) % | Price |
| Dow Jones | 2.01% | 34,407.60 |
| S&P 500 | 2.35% | 4,450.38 |
| FTSE 100 | 0.93% | 7,531.53 |
| DAX | 2.01% | 16,147.90 |
| Nikkei 225 | 1.24% | 33,189.04 |
| Hang Seng | 0.14% | 18,916.43 |
| Shanghai | 0.13% | 3,202.06 |
| KOSPI | -0.23% | 2,564.28 |
Provided by AIT, last update 30 Juni 2023
Regional Info
Selama enam bulan terakhir, saham-saham teknologi yang sempat tertekan pada 2022 kembali bangkit seiring ekspektasi tinggi pada kecerdasan buatan (artificial intelligence/AI) dan harapan akan berakhirnya kampanye suku bunga The Fed. Selama Juni S&P 500 naik 6,5%, menorehkan kinerja bulanan terbaiknya sejak Oktober. Indeks Nasdaq naik 6,6%. Keduanya mencatatkan kenaikan bulanan positif untuk keempat kalinya berturut-turut. Dow naik 4,6%, mencetak kinerja bulanan terbaiknya sejak November 2022. Meskipun terjadi kenaikan yang kuat, beberapa pihak di Wall Street memperkirakan akan ada volatilitas di paruh kedua tahun ini dan kemungkinan ada para investor yang akan mengambil keuntungan dari reli saham tersebut.
Pada Kamis, Biro Statistik Tenaga Kerja (BLS) AS akan menerbitkan laporan Survei Pembukaan Pekerjaan dan Perputaran Tenaga Kerja (JOLTS), yang menyajikan data jumlah lowongan, perekrutan, pengunduran diri, dan pemutusan hubungan kerja untuk Mei. Diperkirakan jumlah lowongan pekerjaan telah menurun menjadi 9,9 juta bulan lalu, dari 10,1 juta pada April.
China akan merilis Indeks Manajer Pembelian (PMI) Caixin pada Senin yang akan memberikan update tentang kekuatan sektor manufaktur ketika pemulihan ekonomi pasca-COVID di ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia tersebut menurun.
Insight 2023 3rd Quarter, 1st week
IHSG, Libur panjang pekan lalu, tidak membawa IHSG naik lebih tinggi dari 6661 untuk Window Dressing akhir Kuartal 2. Walau masih dalam Trend turun, pekan ini (awal kuartal 3), bursa saham kemungkinan ditutup menguat. Pergerakan IHSG dalam area 6562—6622—6717.
RUPIAH, membatasi pergerakanya dalam rentang sideways 14849—15109.
EMAS, 3 minggu berturut-turut terkoreksi. Pekan ini emas akan mencoba rebound, dalam rentang 1892 (support) — 1923 — 1937 (resistance) T.oz. Nilai tukar rupiah menyebabkan emas logam mulia akan bergerak dalam rentang 903353—941033.
USDIDR & GOLD compare to COMPOSITE INDEX (Daily Performance) since 2022
Reksa Dana
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana CAMPURAN | NAV | 1D | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Dana Dinamis | 9298.75 | 0.05% | 1.56% | 4.20% | 4.70% | 5.11% | 32.21% | 829.87% | 3-Jun-02 | 355.62M |
| Principal Balanced Strategic Plus | 1266.15 | 0.02% | 1.29% | 3.69% | 5.12% | 5.04% | 25.94% | 26.61% | 28-May-12 | 7.81M |
| SAM Mutiara Nusantara Nusa Campuran | 1838.13 | -0.58% | 1.32% | 2.17% | 7.27% | 3.59% | 55.97% | 83.81% | 21-Dec-17 | 27.5M |
| Sequis Balance Ultima | 1216.19 | -0.04% | 1.30% | 3.53% | 4.17% | 5.05% | 22.25% | 21.62% | 8-Sep-16 | 134.83M |
| Setiabudi Dana Campuran | 1321.65 | 0.12% | 2.34% | 3.94% | 3.98% | 4.80% | 56.91% | 32.17% | 25-Sep-17 | 58.13M |
| TRIM Kombinasi 2 | 2556.43 | -0.04% | 1.74% | 3.58% | 3.27% | 0.87% | 33.09% | 155.64% | 10-Nov-06 | 23.88M |
| TRIM Syariah Berimbang | 3022.85 | -0.33% | 1.29% | 4.07% | 3.44% | -0.34% | 24.15% | 202.28% | 27-Dec-06 | 19.84M |
| Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A | 1651.42 | -0.13% | 1.64% | 3.74% | 3.81% | -0.15% | 49.22% | 65.14% | 28-Dec-18 | 296.4M |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Juni 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PASAR UANG | NAV | 1D | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Cipta Dana Cash | 1580.16 | 0.01% | 0.32% | 1.05% | 2.16% | 4.30% | 13.20% | 58.02% | 8-Jun-15 | 200.12M |
| Danakita Stabil Pasar Uang | 1499.49 | 0.01% | 0.39% | 1.11% | 2.12% | 3.86% | 13.14% | 49.95% | 10-Sep-15 | 179.14M |
| HPAM Ultima Money Market | 1497.27 | 0.01% | 0.37% | 1.11% | 2.26% | 4.10% | 14.84% | 49.73% | 10-Jun-15 | 738.62M |
| Insight Retail Cash Fund | 1463.43 | 0.01% | 0.47% | 1.34% | 2.24% | 3.97% | 13.60% | 46.34% | 13-Apr-18 | 2.86M |
| Setiabudi Dana Pasar Uang | 1391.08 | 0.01% | 0.40% | 1.14% | 2.13% | 3.91% | 13.21% | 39.11% | 23-Dec-16 | 610.5M |
| Syailendra Dana Kas | 1569.94 | 0.01% | 0.35% | 1.05% | 2.00% | 4.06% | 13.37% | 56.99% | 12-Jun-15 | 4.12T |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Juni 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana PENDAPATAN TETAP | NAV | 1D | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Dana Obligasi Ultima | 2926.22 | 0.05% | 0.75% | 2.34% | 3.56% | 5.08% | 14.34% | 213.93% | 20-Dec-06 | 1.22T |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Nirwasita | 1608.42 | 0.17% | 1.31% | 3.98% | 6.29% | 10.80% | 23.70% | 60.84% | 16-Jun-16 | 54.57M |
| BNI-AM Dana Pendapatan Tetap Syariah Ardhani | 1575.01 | 0.11% | 1.71% | 4.23% | 6.00% | 7.75% | 22.85% | 57.50% | 16-Aug-16 | 247.33M |
| Cipta Bond | 1726.72 | 0.02% | 0.44% | 1.63% | 3.45% | 7.06% | 16.99% | 70.15% | 2-Jan-19 | 21.24M |
| Danakita Obligasi Negara | 1070.34 | 0.11% | 0.92% | 2.85% | 3.88% | 6.78% | - | 7.03% | 26-Mar-21 | 54.43M |
| Eastspring IDR Fixed Income Fund Kelas A | 1682.58 | 0.13% | 1.27% | 3.43% | 5.09% | 9.25% | 20.61% | 68.26% | 16-Mar-15 | 101.7M |
| Eastspring Investments IDR High Grade Kelas A | 1635.92 | 0.19% | 1.22% | 3.03% | 5.09% | 9.68% | 17.52% | 63.59% | 9-Jan-13 | 18.39M |
| Eastspring Syariah Fixed Income Amanah Kelas A | 1426.04 | 0.05% | 1.33% | 3.42% | 4.35% | 5.87% | 18.48% | 42.60% | 17-Apr-17 | 198.19M |
| HPAM Government Bond | 1530.27 | 0.09% | 1.21% | 3.65% | 5.60% | 9.79% | 19.78% | 53.03% | 18-May-16 | 12.91M |
| Insight Haji Syariah | 4574.16 | 0.02% | 0.61% | 1.83% | 3.56% | 7.34% | 24.94% | 357.42% | 13-Jan-05 | 1.63T |
| Principal Income Fund Syariah | 1104.17 | 0.10% | 2.76% | 5.12% | 5.69% | 7.07% | - | 10.42% | 21-Oct-20 | 3.23M |
| SAM Sukuk Syariah Sejahtera | 2502.67 | 0.10% | 0.64% | 1.88% | 4.34% | 6.37% | 20.85% | 164.24% | 29-Oct-97 | 51.44M |
| Syailendra Fixed Income Fund | 2491.11 | 0.08% | 0.91% | 3.16% | 5.38% | 9.91% | 18.45% | 149.11% | 8-Dec-11 | 151.57M |
| Trimegah Fixed Income Plan | 1131.6 | 0.17% | -0.45% | 0.65% | 2.21% | 5.22% | 20.02% | 29.44% | 23-May-19 | 3.46T |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Juni 2023
| Inception | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reksa Dana SAHAM | NAV | 1D | 1M | 3M | YtD | 1Y | 3Y | % | Date | AUM |
| Batavia Dana Saham | 63524.5 | 0.07% | 2.09% | 5.02% | 3.97% | 3.28% | 30.95% | 2409.69% | 16-Dec-96 | 4.5T |
| Batavia Dana Saham Optimal | 3230.39 | 0.04% | 2.98% | 5.42% | 5.11% | 2.98% | 41.66% | 223.04% | 19-Oct-06 | 640.96M |
| BNI-AM Indeks IDX Growth30 Kelas R1 | 1133.53 | 0.16% | 0.30% | 2.39% | 2.66% | 8.88% | - | 13.35% | 27-Jan-22 | 777.04Jt |
| BNI-AM Indeks IDX30 | 877.06 | -0.09% | 1.01% | 4.13% | 4.94% | -5.57% | 25.73% | -9.59% | 28-Dec-17 | 1.73T |
| Cipta Rencana Cerdas | 18226.16 | 0.00% | 2.92% | 6.82% | 6.20% | 8.96% | 49.38% | 2563.36% | 9-Jul-99 | 104.86M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan | 3031.06 | 0.10% | 5.53% | 8.68% | 9.52% | 13.44% | 83.92% | 203.11% | 4-Dec-18 | 50.49M |
| Cipta Saham Unggulan Syariah | 2557.91 | 0.34% | 6.19% | 10.28% | 9.59% | 9.40% | 73.16% | 155.79% | 5-Sep-18 | 19.94M |
| Danakita Saham Prioritas | 1166.55 | 0.19% | 0.97% | 4.92% | 6.06% | 9.98% | 37.04% | 16.65% | 17-Oct-18 | 11.63M |
| Danareksa Mawar Konsumer 10 Kelas A | 1628.2 | -0.11% | 0.61% | 3.48% | 3.79% | 1.75% | 26.39% | 62.82% | 16-Feb-11 | 326.87M |
| Eastspring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A | 1537.11 | -0.04% | 0.17% | 4.16% | 3.84% | 3.08% | 37.90% | 53.71% | 29-Aug-12 | 137.22M |
| Principal Index IDX30 Kelas O | 1344.55 | -0.09% | 0.99% | 4.08% | 4.89% | -5.87% | 20.45% | 34.45% | 7-Dec-12 | 101.04M |
| SAM Indonesian Equity Fund | 2133.08 | 0.43% | 3.73% | 7.87% | 3.74% | 5.59% | 42.91% | 122.13% | 18-Oct-11 | 964.53M |
| Syailendra Equity Opportunity Fund | 4037.87 | 0.12% | 2.31% | 6.71% | 5.37% | 3.31% | 33.58% | 303.79% | 7-Jun-07 | 356.62M |
| Syailendra MSCI Indonesia Value Index Fund Kelas A | 1168.5 | 0.04% | -0.25% | 8.91% | 11.42% | 12.89% | 48.77% | 16.85% | 8-Jun-18 | 685.08M |
| TRIM Kapital | 12019.64 | 0.29% | 2.06% | 7.99% | 9.80% | 7.92% | 54.86% | 1438.49% | 19-Mar-97 | 266.98M |
Provided by AIT, last update 27 Juni 2023
Event Calendar
| Monday, 03 July 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 6:50 AM | JP | Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final JUN | 50.6 | 49.8 | |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Manufacturing PMI JUN | 50.9 | 50.2 | 50.4 |
| 11:00 AM | ID | Inflation Rate YoY JUN | 4.00% | 3.64% | 3.90% |
| 1:00 PM | RU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI JUN | 53.5 | 52.5 | |
| 2:55 PM | DE | HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final JUN | 43.2 | 41 | 41 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final JUN | 47.1 | 46.2 | 46.2 |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final JUN | 48.4 | 46.3 | |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI JUN | 46.9 | 47.2 | 49 |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment JUN | 51.4 | 51.3 | |
| Tuesday, 04 July 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Balance of Trade MAY | €18.4B | €19.1B | |
| 1:00 PM | DE | Exports MoM MAY | 1.20% | ||
| Wednesday, 05 July 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 7:30 AM | JP | Jibun Bank Services PMI Final JUN | 55.9 | 54.2 | |
| 8:45 AM | CN | Caixin Services PMI JUN | 57.1 | 56.5 | |
| 2:55 PM | DE | HCOB Services PMI Final JUN | 57.2 | 54.1 | 54.1 |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI Final JUN | 55.2 | 53.7 | 53.7 |
| 6:00 PM | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate JUN/30 | 6.75% | ||
| 9:00 PM | US | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JUL | 41.7 | ||
| Thursday, 06 July 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 AM | US | FOMC Minutes | |||
| 3:00 AM | US | Fed Williams Speech | |||
| 3:30 AM | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/30 | -2.408M | ||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Factory Orders MoM MAY | -0.40% | 4.50% | |
| 2:30 PM | DE | HCOB Construction PMI JUN | 43.9 | 45.1 | |
| 3:30 PM | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI JUN | 51.6 | 51.7 | |
| 7:15 PM | US | ADP Employment Change JUN | 278K | 180K | 160.0K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Balance of Trade MAY | $-74.6B | $-69.8B | $-68.7B |
| 7:30 PM | US | Exports MAY | $249.0B | $248.2B | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Imports MAY | $323.6B | $316.9B | |
| 7:45 PM | US | Fed Logan Speech | |||
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Services PMI Final JUN | 54.9 | 54.1 | 54.1 |
| 8:45 PM | US | S&P Global Composite PMI Final JUN | 54.3 | 53 | |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Services PMI JUN | 50.3 | 50.5 | 50 |
| 9:00 PM | US | JOLTs Job Openings MAY | 10.103M | 9.9M | |
| 9:00 PM | US | ISM Services Employment JUN | 49.2 | 50 | |
| 10:00 PM | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JUN/30 | -9.603M | ||
| 10:00 PM | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/30 | 0.603M | ||
| Friday, 07 July 2023 | Previous | Consensus | Forecast | ||
| 1:00 PM | DE | Industrial Production MoM MAY | 0.30% | 0.70% | |
| 1:00 PM | GB | Halifax House Price Index YoY JUN | -1.00% | -1.70% | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Non Farm Payrolls JUN | 339K | 200K | 250.0K |
| 7:30 PM | US | Unemployment Rate JUN | 3.70% | 3.70% | 3.70% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Participation Rate JUN | 62.60% | 62.60% | |
| 7:30 PM | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM JUN | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 7:30 PM | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY JUN | 4.30% | 4.10% | |
Source: BI, CNBC Indonesia, Bloomberg, Investing, Trading Economics, KSEI, Cermati, Artha Investa Teknologi (AIT)
Disclaimer:
Dokumen ini dibuat hanya untuk memberikan informasi. Isi dokumen ini tidak boleh ditafsirkan sebagai suatu bentuk penawaran untuk membeli/menjual/dijadikan dasar dari atau yang dapat dijadikan pedoman sehubungan dengan suatu perjanjian atau komitmen apa pun atau suatu nasehat investasi.